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fubarobfusco comments on Reply to Holden on The Singularity Institute - Less Wrong
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I am coming to the conclusion that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" is just bad advice, precisely because it causes people to conflate large consequences and prior improbability. People are fond of saying it about cryonics, for example.
At least sometimes, people may say "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" when they mean "your large novel claim has set off my fraud risk detector; please show me how you're not a scam."
In other words, the caution being expressed is not about prior probabilities in the natural world, but rather the intentions and morals of the claimant.