MixedNuts comments on Useful maxims - Less Wrong
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I think in terms of layers that can be added or shed. (So it's less "winter and summer clothes" and more "winter and year-round clothes".) They are in order: shirt or T-shirt, cardigan, jersey, other jersey, thick woolen monstrosity. This year I've never needed the outermost layer, but I expect to next year. I also wore a light coat, but next year I'll probably need a winter coat.