CarlShulman comments on "Epiphany addiction" - Less Wrong
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What effect size, assessed how, against what counterfactuals? If it's just "I read book X, and thought about it when I made decision Y, and I estimate that decision Y was right" we're in testimonial land, and there are piles of those for both epistemic and practical benefits (although far more on epistemic than practical). Unfortunately, those aren't very reliable. I was specifically talking about non-testimonials, e.g. aggregate effects vs control groups or reference populations to focus on easily transmissible data.
Imagine that we try to take the best general epistemic heuristics we can find today, and send them back in book form to someone from 10 years ago. What effect size do you think they would have on income or academic productivity? What about 20 years? 50 years? Conditional on someone assembling, with some additions, a good set of heuristics what's your distribution of effect sizes?