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faul_sname comments on Rationality Quotes September 2012 - Less Wrong
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I would expect something like that chance. Being hit by a train will be very similar to landing on your side or back after falling 3 to 10 meters (I'm guessing most people hit by trains are at or near a train station, so the impacts will be relatively slow). So the fatality rate should be similar.
Of course, that prediction gives a fatality rate of only 5-20%, so I'm probably missing something.
There's the whole crushing and high voltage shock thing, depending on how you land.
Well, lightning strikes kill less than half the people they hit.
Lightning strikes usually do not involve physical impacts - I think "falling from 3-10 meters and getting struck by lightning" would be worse. In addition, the length of the current flow depends on the high voltage system.
This seems overwhelmingly likely.