shminux comments on Open Thread, September 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 September 2012 08:13AM

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Comment author: shminux 02 September 2012 04:40:57PM *  1 point [-]

you can talk about a version of the Filter that applies to life similar to our own

You can, but it's pointless, unless you think that "life similar to our own" has a significant chance of arising independently of ours. The argument "we are here, so it stand to reason that someone like us would evolve elsewhere" is the generalization from one example (and also a failure of imagination) that I am so dubious about. I see no reason to believe that even given a more or less exact replica of the Solar system (or a billion of such replicas scattered around the Galaxy or the Universe) there will arise even a single instance of what we would recognize as intelligence. This may change if we ever find some non-Earth-originated lifeform. (Go, Curiosity!) Until then, the notion of the Great Filter is just some idle chat.

Comment author: siodine 02 September 2012 05:51:18PM *  1 point [-]

The argument "we are here, so it stand to reason that someone like us would evolve elsewhere" is the generalization from one example (and also a failure of imagination) that I am so dubious about

As you should be.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 02 September 2012 05:42:21PM 0 points [-]

So in a nutshell in the framework of standard discussions about Fermi issues and the Filter one would just say that one heavy filtration step is that intelligent life as we know it seems unlikely to arise.