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Daniel_Burfoot comments on The mind-killer - Less Wrong
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You cannot selectively apply Aumann agreement. If you want to count tiny bunch of people who believe in AI foom, you must also take into account 7 billion people, many of them really smart, who definitely don't.
I don't have this problem, as I don't really believe that using Aumann agreement is useful with real humans.
Or you could count my awareness of insider overconfidence as magic information:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/beware-the-insi.html
This is Less Wrong we're talking about. Insider overconfidence isn't "magic information".
See my top level post for a full response.