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homunq comments on The mind-killer - Less Wrong
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Oh, also, I'd accept that the risk of humanity being seriously hosed within 100 years, or extinct within 1000 years, is significant - say, 10^(-3 +/- 4) which meta-averages to something like 15%.
("Seriously hosed" means gigadeath events, total enslavement, or the like. Note that we're already moderately hosed and always have been, but that seriously hosed is still distinguishable.)