homunq comments on The mind-killer - Less Wrong

23 Post author: ciphergoth 02 May 2009 04:49PM

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Comment author: homunq 14 May 2009 05:58:36PM 1 point [-]

As you explain it, it's not silly.

Do you have a link for a top-level post that puts this kind of caveat on probability assignments? Personally, I think that if most people here understood it that way, they'd use more qualified language when talking about subjective probability. I also think that developing and standardizing such qualified language would be a useful project.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 14 May 2009 08:46:12PM *  0 points [-]

It is the sense in which the term "probability" is generally understood on OB/LW, with varying levels of comprehension by specific individuals. There are many posts on probability, both as an imprecise tool and an ideal (but subjective) construction. They should probably be organized in the Bayesian probability article on the wiki. In the meantime, you are welcome to look for references in the Overcoming Bias archives.

You may be interested in the following two posts, related to this discussion:
Probability is in the Mind
When (Not) To Use Probabilities