To get the right answer, you need to make a honest effort to construct a model which is an unbiased composite of evidence-based models. Metaphorical reasoning is permitted as weak evidence, but cannot be the only sort of evidence.

And you also need to be lucky. I mean, unless you have the resources to fully simulate universes, you can never know that you have the right answer. But the process above, iterated, will tend to improve your answer.