billswift comments on Elitism isn't necessary for refining rationality. - Less Wrong

-20 Post author: Epiphany 10 September 2012 05:41AM

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Comment author: billswift 10 September 2012 08:06:25PM *  0 points [-]

I only recently ran into a good simple explanation for Bayes-- that the more detailed a prediction becomes, the less likely it is to be true.

That looks like a good way of explaining the conjunction and narrative fallacies, too. They could easily be looked at as adding details to a simpler argument. I wonder what other fallacies could be "generalized" similarly?

One thing I think we should be working on is a way of organizing the mass of fallacies and heuristics. There are too many to keep straight without some sort of organizing principles.