MTGandP comments on Firewalling the Optimal from the Rational - Less Wrong
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I think the point is that if something happens, it has probability 1 of having happened, so it doesn't make sense to call it "unlikely." A perfect model could have predicted it with probability 1. If you failed to predict it, it's because your model was imperfect.
I think, however, that plenty of reasonable models of group interactions given our current knowledge would have failed to predict the rise of Objectivism.