MTGandP comments on Firewalling the Optimal from the Rational - Less Wrong

86 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 October 2012 08:01AM

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Comment author: MTGandP 01 November 2012 08:49:50PM 1 point [-]

I think the point is that if something happens, it has probability 1 of having happened, so it doesn't make sense to call it "unlikely." A perfect model could have predicted it with probability 1. If you failed to predict it, it's because your model was imperfect.

I think, however, that plenty of reasonable models of group interactions given our current knowledge would have failed to predict the rise of Objectivism.