TheOtherDave comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong

61 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 October 2012 09:49PM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 14 October 2012 06:45:08PM 3 points [-]

Are we making a similar mistake, i.e., assuming that just because we don't yet have a satisfactory theory of X that no such theory can exist?

Our inability to come up with a plausible-sounding theory of X is not especially strong evidence for the absence of X, agreed.

Still less, though, is it evidence for the presence of X.

Especially if the work a theory of X is supposed to do can be done without a theory of X, or turn out not to be necessary in the first place.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 16 October 2012 04:09:16AM *  2 points [-]

Still less, though, is it evidence for the presence of X.

Agreed, the evidence for the presence of X is that humans have been talking about it for a long time and seem to mean something.

Especially if the work a theory of X is supposed to do can be done without a theory of X, or turn out not to be necessary in the first place.

Careful, it's very easy to convince oneself that one doesn't need a theory of X when one is actually hiding X behind cached thoughts and sneaked in connotations. For example, Russell no doubt believed that he didn't need a theory of causality to do the work the theory of causality was supposed to do.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 17 October 2012 04:15:48PM 2 points [-]

Absolutely. If I fail to notice how the work is actually being done, I will likely have all kinds of false beliefs about that work.