To use a different example that I feel more comfortable with, let's say we had to evaluate the probability that the current government of China collapses by 2035. Economic trends are going to be a huge factor in this. We can break that down further. Here are some major things that will determine the economic health of China: 1. Demographics, what China does with its aging population and what the economic effects of the one-child policy and lack of females are. 2. Environmental health, the environment is the foundation of the economy. 3. Infrastructure is important.

So, looking at 1, we can say that there's a high probability that China will at least initially attempt to support its aging population. However, the population is so old that I can't see this working for long. I think China will lose lots of money on its elderly people, but then will just let them die (this would have social consequences, those should be put as inputs into a different section of our overall prediction). I also think that China is going to have much of its male population move overseas, and that it's going to start encouraging foreign females to immigrate. These policies won't be very successful because China is awful. Overall, China will still lose lots of money.

Looking at 2, China's environment is trash, and their priority is on short term growth, so this will stay the same for the foreseeable future. Unless China gets some bold new leader who is so charismatic he can keep the people from revolting while their short term growth slows and who implements major environmental reforms, then China is doomed. I don't think that any such leaders exist in China right now. However, another solution would arise if some fantastic new technology allowed China to change the basis of its production system. I don't know what the probability of cheap and widespread nanotech or something similar by 2035 is, but I'm going to assume that it's low and so this also won't happen and so China's environment is in trouble.

Looking at 3, China won't be able to maintain infrastructure as a consequence of 1 and 2. This will aggravate underlying problems. Also, China's already running into problems because other countries in the region are trying to take the cheap industrial production section of the market China used to have. China's been trying to switch towards a more technologically advanced production economy, but their education is subpar. This will get worse during the aging crisis.

China is basically dependent on economic growth to keep its population from revolting, from what I've read.

So I conclude that unless something very important happens with China's leadership or cultural/social practices, the economy of China will collapse by 2035 and China will then disintegrate into a civil war. I'm going to put about a 80% probability estimate on this one. This is what I actually believe, although this is sort of an incomplete description and also it oversimplifies and formalizes a lot of what is just raw intuition in my head.

This example also hopefully makes clear the risks of infinite regression. Stuff is complicated.