FWIW, my own Obama probability is more like 65-70%.

Additionally, I'm not wanting to go through the hassle of getting a paypal or whatever might happen. I would like the information on this (whatever the standard betting venue or monetary exchange thingy on LessWrong would be, if there is one, even though I'm not going to be betting here). I think I might be scared that I'll lose the bet and then decide to not pay you, also, and that's something else that's making me reluctant to bet.

Bets are typically paid as Paypal, Bitcoin, or donations to specified charities.

Now that I think about it, I should also get an Intrade account in advance now.

I personally don't use Intrade because the new fees make it very expensive for low-stakes long-term bets like most bets on LW (assuming the market even exists).