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gwern comments on Case Study: the Death Note Script and Bayes - Less Wrong
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Yes, thanks. (And while I'm at it, why was I using 'likelihood factor' all over the place when it's 'likelihood ratio'...)
You may have made the same mistake in the Plot section when adding up (rather than multiplying) a bunch of likelihood ratios.
Yes, that was an error; I actually made a counterbalancing error there, where I flipped two arguments in the last two... My own ineptitude never ceases to impress me sometimes. (It's a good thing that was a hypothetical section that wasn't used in the full chained of posterior/prior calculations, because I'd've hated to have to redo them all. Again.)