Kindly comments on Case Study: the Death Note Script and Bayes - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (43)
You may have made the same mistake in the Plot section when adding up (rather than multiplying) a bunch of likelihood ratios.
Yes, that was an error; I actually made a counterbalancing error there, where I flipped two arguments in the last two... My own ineptitude never ceases to impress me sometimes. (It's a good thing that was a hypothetical section that wasn't used in the full chained of posterior/prior calculations, because I'd've hated to have to redo them all. Again.)