MinibearRex comments on Case Study: the Death Note Script and Bayes - Less Wrong

25 Post author: gwern 04 January 2013 04:33AM

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Comment author: MinibearRex 07 January 2013 04:14:37AM 0 points [-]

We finish with high confidence in the script's authenticity

If you're already familiar this particular leaked 2009 live-action script, please write down your current best guess as to how likely it is to be authentic.

Unless someone already tried to come up with an explicit probability, this ordering will bias the results. Ask people for their guesses before you tell them what you have already written on the subject.

Comment author: gwern 07 January 2013 04:26:35AM 0 points [-]

Well, no one familiar with the script before reading this essay seems to have reported anything. That was a bit sloppy on my part, though.