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gwern comments on Case Study: the Death Note Script and Bayes - Less Wrong
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That was pointed out in the essay two or three times, and has already been mentioned in the comments here as well.
Ah, sorry about that. Should have read the footnotes.
Well, it was also towards the end as part of a list of reasons to not believe the final estimate.
That mentions there are 'reasons' to believe they might be correlated, still might have been worth my while to mention one such reason had that been all there was.