So far, I've been more annoyed on LessWrong by people reacting to fear of "cultural erosion" than by any extant symptoms of same.
The fear is that this is due to a selection effect. Of the people I know through LW, a disappointing number have stopped reading the site. One of my hobbies, for over a decade now, has been posting on forums, and so the only way I'd stop reading / posting on LW is if I find a forum more relevant to my interests. (For the curious, I've moved from 3rd edition D&D to xkcd to here over that timeframe, and only post in xkcd's MLP and gaming threads these days.) For many of the former LWers I know, forum-posting isn't one of their hobbies, and they came here for the excellent content, primarily by EY. Now that there aren't blog posts that they want to read frequently enough, they don't come, and I'm not sure that any of them even know that EY has started posting a new sequence.
I think that this fear is mostly misplaced, because the people in that class generally aren't the people posting the good content, and I think any attempt to improve LW should be along the lines of "more visible good content" and not "less bad content," but it's important for evaporative cooling reasons to periodically assess the state of content on LW.
I think this site is dying because there's nothing interesting to talk about anymore. Discussion is filled with META, MEETUP, SEQ RERUN, links to boring barely-relevant articles, and idea threads where the highest comment has more votes than the thread itself (i.e. a crappy idea). Main is not much better. Go to archive.org and compare (date chosen randomly, aside from being a while ago). I don't think eternal september is the whole explanation here -- you only need 1 good user to write a good article.
Discussion is filled with META, MEETUP, SEQ RERUN, links to boring barely-relevant articles
The website structure needs to be changed. "Main" and "Discussion" simply do not reflect the LW content today.
We should have a separate "Forum" (or some other name) category for all the non-article discussion threads like Open Thread, Media Thread, Group Rationality Thread, and stuff like this.
Then, the "Discussion" should be renamed to "Articles" (and possibly "Main" to "Main Articles") to make it obvious what belongs there.
Everything else should be downvoted; optionally with a comment: "This belongs to the Open Thread". (And if the author says they didn't know that Open Thread exists, there is something seriously wrong... about the structure of the website.)
I feel like I wrote this to the LW discussions at least dozen times...
there's nothing interesting to talk about anymore.
I think there are interesting things here. They are just drowned in too many less interesting things.
Let's look at the numbers: 6 articles so far on Dec 9th; 6 articles on Dec 8th; 4 articles on Dec 7th; 11 articles on Dec 6th; 8 arti...
One issue with the LW/CFAR approach is that the focus is on getting better/more efficient at pursuing your goals, but not on deciding whether you're applying your newfound superpowers to the right goals. (There's a bit of this with efficient altruism, but those giving opportunities are more about moving people up Maslow's hierarchy of needs, not on figuring out what to want when you're not at subsistence level).
Luke's recent post suggest that almost no one here has the prereqs to tackle metaphysics or normative ethics, but that always has seemed like the obvious next topic for rationality-minded people. I was glad when Luke was writing his Desirism sequences back at CSA, but it never got to the point where I had a decent enough model of what normative claims desirism made to be able to evaluate it.
Basically, I think these topics would let us set our sights a little higher than "Help me optimize my computer use" but I think one major hurdle is that it's hard to tackle these topics in individual posts, and people may feel intimidated about starting sequences.
One possibility is that the kind of content printing-spoon likes is easy to get wrong, and therefore easy to get voted down for, and therefore the system is set up with the wrong incentives (for the kind of content printing-spoon likes). I'd guess that for most users, the possibility of getting voted down is much more salient than the possibility of getting voted up. Getting voted down represents a form of semi-public humiliation (it's not like reddit, where if you post something lame it gets downvoted and consequentially becomes obscure).
The great scientists often make this error. They fail to continue to plant the little acorns from which the mighty oak trees grow. They try to get the big thing right off. And that isn't the way things go.
See this thread for more: http://lesswrong.com/lw/5pf/what_were_losing/
Overall, I suspect that LW could stand to rely less on downvoting in general as a means of influencing user behavior. It seems like meta threads of this type often go something like "there's content X I hate, content Y I hate, and practically no content at all, really!" Well if you want more content, don't disparage the people writing con...
The Popular Struggle Committee for Salvation of Less Wrong calls for the immediate implementation of the following measures:
1) Suspension of HPMOR posting until the site has been purged. All new users who join during the period of transition will be considered trolls until proven otherwise. Epiphany to be appointed Minister of Acculturation.
2) A comprehensive ban on meta-discussion. Articles and comments in violation of the ban will be flagged as "meta" by the moderators, and replying to them will incur a "meta toll" of -5 karma. A similar "lol toll" shall apply to jokes that aren't funny.
3) All meetups for the next six months to consist of sixty minutes of ideological self-criticism and thirty minutes of weapons training.
The destruction of LW culture has already happened. The trigger was EY leaving, and people without EY's philosophical insight stepping in to fill the void by chatting about their unconventional romantic lives, their lifehacks, and their rational approach to toothpaste. If anything, I see things having gotten somewhat better recently, with EY having semi-returned, and with the rise of the hypercontrarian archconservative clique, which might be wrong about everything but at least they want to talk about it and not toothpaste.
Here's two things we desperately need:
An authoritative textbook-style index/survey-article on eveything in LW. We have been generating lots of really cool intellectual work, but without a prominently placed, complete, hierarchical, and well-updated overview of "here's the state of what we know", we arent accumulating knowledge. This is a big project and I don't know how I could make it happen, besides pushing the idea, which is famously ineffective.
LW needs a king. This idea is bound to be unpopular, but how awesome would it be to have someone who's paid job it was to make LW into an awesome and effective community. I imagine things like getting proper studies done of how site layout/design should be to make LW easy to use and sticky to the right kind of people (currently sucks), contacting, coordinating, and encourageing meetup organizers individually (no one does this right now and lw-organizers has little activity), thinking seriously and strategically about problems like OP, and leading big projects like idea #1. Obviously this person would have CEO-level authority.
One problem is that our really high-power agent types who are super dedicated to the community (i...
LW needs a king.
LW as a place to test applied moldbuggery, right?
Communities and democratic methods suck at doing the kind of strategic, centralized, coherent decision making that we really need.
Kings also suck at it, in the average. Of course, if we are lucky and find a good king... the only problem is that king selection is the kind of strategic decision humans suck at.
For obvious decision theoretic reasons, a king is necessary. However, the king does not have to be a man.
Our benevolent dictator isn't doing much dictatoring. If I understand correctly that it's EY, he has a lot more hats to wear, and doesn't have the time to do LW-managing full time.
Is he willing to improve LW, but not able? Then he is not a dictator.
Is he able, but not willing? Then he is not benevolent.
Is he both willing and able? Then whence cometh suck?
Is he neither willing nor able? Then why call him God?
As with god, If we observe a lack of leadership, it is irrelevant whether we nominally have a god-emperor or not. The solution is always the same: Build a new one that will actually do the job we want done.
Try working in system administration for a while. Some people will think you are a god; some people will think you are a naughty child who wants to be seen as a god; and some people will think you are a sweeper. Mostly you will feel like a sweeper ... except occasionally when you save the world from sin, death, and hell.
If you're talking about yourself, go for it. Get a foot in the code, make the front page better, be audacious. Make this place awesome.
I'm opposed to appointing her as any sort of actual-power-having-person. Epiphany is a relative newcomer who makes a lot of missteps.
I'm disappointed in some of you. Am I the only person who prefers feeling elitist and hipstery to spreading rationality?
In all seriousness, though, I don't see why this is getting down voted. Eternal September probably isn't our biggest issue, but the massive increase in users is likely to cause problems, and those problems should be addressed. I personally don't like the idea of answering the horde of newbies with restrictions based on seniority or karma. That's not really fair and can select for poster who have used up their best ideas while shutting out new viewpoints. I much prefer the calls for restrictions based on merit and understanding, like the rationality quiz proposed below, or attempts to enlighten new users or even older users who have forgotten some of the better memes here. I also like the idea of a moderator of some kind, but my anti-authoritarian tendencies make me wary of allotting that person too much power as they are assuredly biased and will have a severely limited ability to control all the content here, which will generate unfairness and turn some people off.
I doubt that endless September is the main problem here, but I think it's pretty clear that this sit...
As was noted previously: the community is probably doomed. I suspect all communities are - they have a life cycle.
Even if a community has the same content, the people within it change with time.
The essential work on the subject is Clay Shirky's A Group Is Its Worst Enemy. It says at some point it's time for a wizard smackdown, but it's not clear this helps - it also goes from "let's see what happens" development to a retconned fundamentalism, where the understood implicit constitution is enforced. This can lead to problems if people have different ideas on what the understood implicit constitution actually was.
I also think this stuff is constant because Mark Dery's Flame Wars discussed the social structure of online groups (Usenet, BBSes) in detail in 1994, and described the Internet pretty much as it is now and has been since the 1980s.
tl;dr people are a problem.
"LessWrong has lost 52% of it's giftedness since March of 2009" is an incredibly sensationalist way of describing a mere 7-point average IQ drop. Especially if the average is dropping due to new users, because then the "giftedness" isn't actually being lost.
I think we could use more intellectual productivity. I think we already have the capacity for a lot more. I think that would do a lot against any problems we might have, Obviously I am aware of the futility of the vague "we" in this paragraph, so I'll talk about what I could do but don't.
I have a lot of ideas to write up. I want to write something on "The improper use of empathy", something about "leading and following", something about social awkwardness from the inside. I wrote an article about fermi estimation that I've nev...
(:
I can no longer hold my tongue. Your smileys are upside-down, and the tiny moments of empathetic sadness when my eyes haven't sorted out which side of the parens the colon is on are really starting to add up. :)
It has occurred to me that LessWrong is divided against itself with two conflicting directives:
Spreading rationality implies helping as many new people as possible develop improved rational thinking abilities but being a well-kept garden specifically demands censorship and/or bans of "fools" and people who are not "fun".
"A house divided against itself cannot stand." (Lincoln)
I think this fundamental conflict must be solved in some way. If not, then the risk is that LessWrong's di...
Without some measure of who the respondants are, this survey can't mean much. If the recent arrivals vote on mass that there is no problem, the poll will suggest there isn't any, even though Eternal September is the very mechanism that causes the poll outcome! For the same reason that sufficiently large immigration becomes politically impossible to reverse, so too Eternal September cannot be combatted democractically.
To get a more accurate response, we'd have to restrict it to people who had more than 100 karma 12 months ago or something.
So, what's needed is a division into an introductory place for anyone to join and learn, and a "graduate-level" place for people with serious ability and commitment to making stuff happen. The latter wouldn't be a public forum, in fact it wouldn't even be a forum at all, even if as part of its activities it has one. It would be an organisation founded for the purpose of promulgating rationality and improving that of its members, not merely talking about it. It would present itself to the world as such, with participation by invitation or by application rather than just by signing in on a web site.
In other words, LessWrong and CFAR.
We might want to consider methods of raising standards for community members via barriers of entry employed elsewhere (Either for posting, getting at some or all the content, or even hearing about the site's existance):
This post reminds me of Eliezer's own complaints against Objectivism; that Ayn Rand's ingroup became increasingly selective as time went on, developing a self-reinforcing fundamentalism.
As I wrote in one of my blogs a while back, discussing another community that rejects newcomers:
"This is a part of every community. A community which cannot or will not do this is crippled and doomed, which is to say, it -is- their jobs to [teach new members their mores]. This is part of humanity; we keep dying and getting replaced, and training our replacements is a...
I really don't see why Epiphany is so obsessed with IQ. Based on anecdotal evidence, there is not much of a correlation between IQ and intellect beyond the first two standard deviations above the mean anyway. I have come across more than a handful of people who don't excel in traditional IQ tests, but who are nevertheless very capable of presenting coherent, well-argued insights. Does it matter to me that their IQ is 132 instead of 139? No. Who cares about the average IQ among members of the LW community as long as we continue demonstrating the ability to ...
How many believe that the current culture of LW should deviate exactly as much or more than it currently does from the culture of people who are likely to join (and therefore influence)?
I think that LW would be better with more good content. (Shocking!) I like plans that improve the amount of visible good content on LW, and am generally ambivalent towards plans that don't have that as an explicit goal.
My preferred explanation for why LW is less fun than it was before: Curiosity seeks to annihilate itself, and the low-hanging fruits have been picked. At one point, I was curious about what diet I should follow; I discovered intermittent fasting, tried it out, and it worked well for me. I am now far less curious about what diet I should foll...
The bad news is that LessWrong's IQ average has decreased on each survey. It can be argued that it's not decreasing by a lot or we don't have enough data, but if the data is good, LessWrong has lost 52% of it's giftedness since March of 2009.
What? The inflated self-estimates have dramatically declined towards more likely numbers. Shouldn't we be celebrating a decrease in bias?
Edit: My analysis of the public survey data; in particular, the number of responders is a huge part of the estimate. If you assume every non-responder has, on average, an IQ of 1...
I'm curious, how do you propose spreading ideas or raising the sanity waterline without bringing in new people?
Option 1: Close the borders. It's unfortunate that the best sort might be kept out, while its guaranteed the rest will be kept out. The best can found / join other sites, and LW can establish immigration policies after a while.
Option 2. Builds. Freeze LW at a stage of development, then have a new build later. Call this one LW 2012, and nobody can join for six months, and we're intent on topics X Y and Z. Then for build 2013 there are some vacancies (based on karma?) for a period of time, and we're intent on topics X Q and R.
Option 3: Expiration date. No...
In my experience, which admittedly comes from sites quite different from LW, an Internet project running on volunteer contributions that's decided to keep new members from productive roles has a useful lifetime of no more than one to two years. That's about how long it takes for everybody to voice their pet issues, settle their feuds, and move on with their lives; people may linger for years afterwards, but at that point the vital phase is over. This can be stretched somewhat if there's deep factional divisions within the founding population -- spite is a pretty good motivator -- but only at the cost of making the user experience a lot more political.
It's also worth bearing in mind that demand for membership in a forum like this one is continuous and fairly short-term. Accounts offer few easily quantifiable benefits to begin with, very few if the site's readable to non-members, so we can't rely on lasting ambitions to participate; people sign up because they view this forum as an attractive place to contribute, but the Internet offers no shortage of equivalent niches.
It has occurred to me to wonder whether the poll might be biased. I wanted to add a summary of things that protect LessWrong against endless September when I wrote this post. However, I couldn't think of even one. I figured my thread to debate whether we should have better protection would have turned up any compelling reasons to think LessWrong is protected but it didn't.
I became curious about this just now wondering whether there really isn't a single reason to think that LessWrong is protected, and I re-read all of the comments (though not the replie...
I think we just need people to downvote more. Perhaps we could insist that you downvote one thing for every three things that you upvote?
- Eliezer documented the arrival of poseurs (people who superficially copycat cultural behaviors - they are reported to over-run subcultures) which he termed "Undiscriminating Skeptics".
If I understand Eliezer right, when he says "Undiscriminating Skeptics" he means the people who always favor academic status quo ideas and thus reject ideas like cryonics and the many world hypothesis.
When I read LessWrong, I seldom see comments that critize others for being undiscriminating skeptics. If LessWrong participants want to keep out undiscriminating skeptics than they should speak up against the practice a lot more than they currently do.
I condensed the feedback I got in the last few threads into a summary of pros and cons of each solution idea if you would like to something for reference.
...overwhelming user influx? [pollid:366]
...trending toward the mean? [pollid:367]
...some other cause? [pollid:368]
(Please explain the other causes in the comments.)
...overwhelming user influx?
(Assuming user is of right type/attitude, too many users for acculturation capacit...
You're focusing on negative reinforcement for bad comments. What we need is positive reinforcement for good comments. Because there are so many ways for a comment to be bad, discouraging any given type of bad comment will do effectively nothing to encourage good comments.
"Don't write bad posts/comments" is not what we want. "Write good posts/comments" is what we want, and confusing the two means nothing will get done.
Why do the first three questions have four variations on the theme of "new users are likely to erode the culture" and nothing intermediate between that and "there is definitely no problem at all"?
Why ask for the "best solution" rather than asking "which of these do you think are good ideas"?
So, you assigned a higher probability to there being two organizations from the same people on the same subject at around the same time with extremely similar names and my correction being mistaken in spite of my immersion in the community in real life... than to you having out-of-date information about the organization's name?
Various people raised concerns that growth might ruin the culture after reading my "LessWrong could grow a lot" thread. There has been some discussion about whether endless September, a phenomenon that kills online discussion groups, is a significant threat to LessWrong and what can be done. I really care about it, so I volunteered to code a solution myself for free if needed. Luke invited debate on the subject (the debate is here) and will be sent the results of this poll and asked to make a decision. It was suggested by him in an email that I wait a little while and then post my poll (meta threads are apparently annoying to some, so we let people cool off). Here it is, preceded by a Cliff's notes summary of the concerns.
Why this is worth your consideration:
- Yvain and I checked the IQ figures in the survey against other data this time, and the good news is that it's more believable that the average LessWronger is gifted. The bad news is that LessWrong's IQ average has decreased on each survey. It can be argued that it's not decreasing by a lot or we don't have enough data, but if the data is good, LessWrong's average has lost 52% of it's giftedness since March of 2009.
- Eliezer documented the arrival of poseurs (people who superficially copycat cultural behaviors - they are reported to over-run subcultures) which he termed "Undiscriminating Skeptics".
- Efforts to grow LessWrong could trigger an overwhelming deluge of newbies.
- LessWrong registrations have been increasing fast and it's possible that growth could outstrip acculturation capacity. (Chart here)
- The Singularity Summit appears to cause a deluge of new users that may have similar effect to the September deluges of college freshman that endless September is named after. (This chart shows a spike correlated with the 2011 summit where 921 users joined that month, which is roughly equal to the total number of active users LW tends to have in a month if you go by the surveys or Vladmir's wget.)
- A Slashdot effect could result in a tsunami of new users if a publication with lots of readers like the Wall Street Journal (they used LessWrong data in this article) decides to write an article on LessWrong.
- The sequences contain a lot of the culture and are long meaning that "TLDR" may make LessWrong vulnerable to cultural disintegration. (New users may not know how detailed LW culture is or that the sequences contain so much culture. I didn't.)
- Eliezer said in August that the site was "seriously going to hell" due to trolls.
- A lot of people raised concerns.
Two Theories on How Online Cultures Die:
Overwhelming user influx.
There are too many new users to be acculturated by older members, so they form their own, larger new culture and dominate the group.
Trending toward the mean.
A group forms because people who are very different want a place to be different together. The group attracts more people that are closer to mainstream than people who are equally different because there are more mainstream people than different people. The larger group attracts people who are even less different in the original group's way for similar reasons. The original group is slowly overwhelmed by people who will never understand because they are too different.
Poll Link:
Endless September Poll.
Request for Feedback:
In addition to constructive criticism, I'd also like the following:
Your observations of a decline or increase in quality, culture or enjoyment at LessWrong, if any.
Ideas to protect the culture.
Ideas for tracking cultural erosion.