I would tentatively describe the kind of forecasting you're talking about as "narrative forecasting." A good narrative has maybe one or two important ideas; too many important ideas would confuse the reader. A good narrative has a human-satisfactory description of a plausible-looking chain of causes and effects leading to the future; probabilistic statements, complicated webs of cause and effect, and so forth also confuse readers. And a good narrative is generally a bad prediction because reality doesn't work that way.