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NancyLebovitz comments on [Link] How to Win at Forecasting - a conversation with Philip Tetlock - Less Wrong
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Is there any research on instrumental prediction in politics? In other words, while pundits are interesting, what about people in government who seem to be good at achieving their goals? Can anything worthwhile be learned from how they view the world?
Goals in the sense of actually carrying out electoral promises, or in the sense of "get re-elected"?
In the sense of public policy changes that they seem to be in favor of.