HalFinney comments on "I don't know." - Less Wrong
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Is it reasonable to distinguish between probabilities we are sure of, and probabilities we are unsure of? We know the probability that rolling a die will get a 6 is 1/6, and feel confident about that. But what is the probability of ancient life on Mars? Maybe 1/6 is a reasonable guess for that. But our probabilistic estimates feel very different in the two cases. We are much more tempted to say "I don't know" in the second case. Is this a legitimate distinction in Bayesian terms, or just an illusion?