Ok, then my answer is read the sequences.

Have you read the sequences? My response depends on whether you have or haven't.

Why are you asking this question in a rationality forum and using language that indicates your opinion is based on rationality when it's clearly not and you admit as such?

but if I'm honest, my direct reason for not wanting to vote for him is a strong negative association I've built with him over the past 8 years. Now, why do I have that negative association? Well, hard to know 100%, but I suspect it's his divisive rhetoric.

If you want some good rhetoric to show you why people vote Trump then go to a local Trump rally near you. You'll see that the people in attendance are the nicest in America and you'll have a fun time listening to an electrifying speaker. If you go to 1 or 2 rallies it'll probably change your vibes and then you'll understand.

My personal, rational reasons why I will be voting for Trump for the 3rd time are:

• Trump is less likely to do pure evil stuff like this: https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1844856866192363630, https://www.justice.gov/crt/media/1373236/dl

• Trump talks about diplomacy with other nations in a way that makes sense. We protect american interests and if those interests align with other countries we work with them. If the interests don't align then we work whatever we can out through trade. I don't want to hear about how my country "stands by" other countries. I want to know that the person in the white house is at least trying to support American interests.

• Trump will be better for lowering taxes. Taxes are evil and destroying all progress. The government has gotten to the point where it's taking virtually all non-necessary, and now even necessary, profits to support its bloated corpose. More than half the people in America are reliant on stealing large portions of the income from the top 5% of the tax bracket. This is not how a real civilization should operate.

Edit: and I’m open to whatever response.

My whole family takes a round of ivermectin every year or so for the same reason. Anti parasitics don’t really have bad side effects (often have good side effects such as -inflammation) so it’s just positives all around.

Thank you for the post, I'll be watching the video later. The first thought that comes to my mind is why wasn't there a helicopter search in the area? The paucity of trees on the terrain seems to be perfect for helicopter reconnaissance but I see no mention of that in this post.

Real money prediction markets are biased towards outcomes that increase utility of the bettors.

For an example: there is a prediction market on who will win the presidential race, Alice or Bob. Currently the market sits at 50-50 and the payout for $1 on Alice is $2 and the same for Bob. Our bettor, Charlie, has internal odds that are the same as the market, however he also believes with an incredibly high certainty that if Bob wins the race then the buying power of a dollar will double. Therefore $1 on Bob is worth $4 if Bob wins, but the same $1 on Alice will only be worth $2. Because of this Charlie will bet the market all the way to 66-33 favoring Bob. This is despite the fact that his internal probability that Bob wins is only 50-50.

I’m surprised that anyone here cares about environmentalism. Aren’t any of the far reaching effects of what we do today with the environment insignificant compared to the development of ai? Friendly ai will be able to solve any of the pollution issues we’re creating today. Unless you think we’re going to successfully pause ai for hundreds of years then I just don’t see the point in making life worse for present humans for some speculative benefit to the future population.

Yeah openly admitting that I have a strong case is good for credibility building. One of the most annoying things is when defense attorneys ask,

"Why is Alice is getting a sweetheart plea deal and Bob is getting jail time when they both committed the same crime and both have minimal criminal history???"

"Uh, Alice's case is almost purely circumstantial while Bob is caught on camera, that's the difference."

"But they both did the same bad thing!"

"Do you understand how plea deals work?"

"[Some nonsense showing that the defense attorney indeed doesn't know how plea deals work]"

I thought the first quote was tongue in cheek and implied that teachers want stupid pupils.

I’m the first one