ciphergoth comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong

43 Post author: steven0461 17 March 2013 08:50AM

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Comment author: ciphergoth 15 March 2013 09:38:59PM 7 points [-]

If I ask you to guess which of a million programs produces an output that scores highest on some complicated metric, but you don't know anything about the programs, you're going to have a one in a million chance of guessing correctly. Given the further information that these three, and only these three, were written with the specific goal of doing well on that metric, and all the others were trying to do well on related but different metrics, and suddenly it's more likely than not that one of those three does best.

There are very few charities that are trying to be the most efficient from a utilitarian point of view. It's likely that one of them is.