It could well be that P[Observer|Orderly universe] is low (plenty of types of order are uninhabitable) but that P[Orderly universe|Observer] is high since P[Observer|Disorderly universe] is very much lower than P[Observer|Orderly universe].
Yes, it could be. And if this is true, then my line of argument here falls apart entirely.
Another thought is whether there are any universes with no order at all? You are likely imagining a "random" universe with all sorts of unpredictable events, but then are the parts of the universe dependent or independent random variables? If they are dependent, then those dependencies are a form of order. If they are independent, then the universe will satisfy statistical laws (large number laws for instance), so this is also a form of order. Very difficult to imagine a universe with no order.
Huh. A very good point. I was thinking in terms of randomised natural laws - natural laws, in short, that appear to make very little sense - but you raise a good point.
Hmmm... one example of a randomised universe might be one wherein any matter can accelerate in any direction at any time for absolutely no reason, and most matter does so on a fairly regular basis (mean, once a day, standard deviation six months). If the force of the acceleration is low enough (say, one metre per second squared on average, expended for an average of ten seconds), and all the other laws of nature are similar to our universe (so still a mostly orderly universe) then I can easily imagine intelligence arising in such a universe as well.
Hmmm... one example of a randomised universe might be one wherein any matter can accelerate in any direction at any time for absolutely no reason, and most matter does so on a fairly regular basis
Well let's take that example, since the amount of "random acceleration" can be parameterised. If the parameter is very low, then we're never going to observe it (so perhaps our universe actually is like this, but we haven't detected it yet!) If the parameter is very large, then planets (or even stars and galaxies) will get ripped apart long before ob...
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