Hm... Let me try to unpack my thinking, in particular my terminology which might not match exactly the usual LW conventions. I think of:
Bayes theorem as a simple, conventional, and an entirely uncontroversial statistical procedure. If you ask a dyed-in-the-wool rabid frequentist whether the Bayes theorem is true he'll say "Yes, of course".
Bayesian statistics as an approach to statistics with three main features. First is the philosophical interpretation of (some) probability as subjective belief. Second is the focus on conditional probabilities. Third is the strong preferences for full (posterior) distributions as answers instead of point estimates.
Cognitive biases (aka the Kahneman/Tversky stuff) as certain distortions in the way our wetware processes information about reality, as well as certain peculiarities in human decision-making. Yes, a lot of it it is concerned with dealing with uncertainty. Yes, there is some synergy with Bayesian statistics. No, I don't think this synergy is the defining factor here.
I understand that historically the in the LW community Bayesian statistics and cognitive biases were intertwined. But apart from historical reasons, it seems to me these are two different things and the degree of their, um, interpenetration is much overstated on LW.
it sounds to me like you're saying "we don't just need stats textbooks, we need Less Wrong."
Well, we need for which purpose? For real-life decision making? -- sure, but then no one is claiming that stats textbooks are sufficient for that.
much of the Less Wrong stuff comes from thinking about and taking seriously the stuff from the stats textbook
Some, not much. I can argue that much of LW stuff comes from thinking logically and following chains of reasoning to their conclusion -- or actually just comes from thinking at all instead of reacting instinctively / on the basis of a gut feeling or whatever.
I agree that thinking in probabilities is a very big step and it *is* tied to Bayesian statistics. But still it's just one step.
I agree with your terminology.
I can argue that much of LW stuff comes from thinking logically ... I agree that thinking in probabilities is a very big step
When contrasting LW stuff and mainstream rationality, I think the reliance on thinking in probabilities is a big part of the difference. ("Thinking logically," for the mainstream, seems to be mostly about logic of certainty.) When labeling, it makes sense to emphasize contrasting features. I don't think that's the only large difference, but I see an argument (which I don't fully endorse) th...
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A list of some posts that are pretty awesome
I recommend the major sequences to everybody, but I realize how daunting they look at first. So for purposes of immediate gratification, the following posts are particularly interesting/illuminating/provocative and don't require any previous reading:
More suggestions are welcome! Or just check out the top-rated posts from the history of Less Wrong. Most posts at +50 or more are well worth your time.
Welcome to Less Wrong, and we look forward to hearing from you throughout the site!
Note from orthonormal: MBlume and other contributors wrote the original version of this welcome post, and I've edited it a fair bit. If there's anything I should add or update on this post (especially broken links), please send me a private message—I may not notice a comment on the post. Finally, once this gets past 500 comments, anyone is welcome to copy and edit this intro to start the next welcome thread.