nshepperd comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (5th thread, March 2013) - Less Wrong
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Comments (1750)
No, they won't. You're committing base rate neglect. It's entirely possible for people to publish 2000 papers in a field where there's no hope of finding a true result, and get 100 false results with p<0.05 just by chance (along with 1900 other false results with p > 0.05).