LawrenceC comments on The Error of Crowds - Less Wrong

13 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 April 2007 09:50PM

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Comment author: LawrenceC 07 August 2015 01:23:17AM *  1 point [-]

Results from the Good Judgment Project suggest that putting people into teams lets them significantly outperform (have lower Brier's scores than) predictions from both (unweighted) averaging of probabilities and the (admittedly also unweighted) averaging of probability estimates from the better portion of predictors. This seems to offer weak evidence that what goes on in a group is not simple averaging.