shminux comments on Pascal's Muggle (short version) - Less Wrong

29 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 May 2013 11:36PM

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Comment author: shminux 06 May 2013 04:33:24PM 2 points [-]

Just wondering how you would go about estimating the "optimal" amount to give in such a situation. After all, it's a fairly common occurrence, someone claiming a scientific breakthrough providing free energy and showing an apparent working perpetual motion machine, or a new herbal medicine which cures cancer and presenting dozens of convincing testimonies.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 May 2013 05:02:56PM 0 points [-]

If you really, honestly can't tell the difference between that and an xrisk reduction charity, you're probably not reading LW in the first place. Or if you mean something else by this question, could you ask with a different example instead?

Comment author: shminux 06 May 2013 05:13:53PM *  3 points [-]

Sorry, I'm just an amateur asking what is probably a stupid question. Given the leverage N and the prior probability 1/n, where N>>n>>1, what is the optimal investment amount, in whichever units you prefer? Say, in percent of the resources available to you.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 May 2013 05:53:59PM 1 point [-]

I can't offhand see how to translate the given numbers into a Kelly betting criterion. My own heuristic is something more along the lines of "Find the best thing that looks like it might actually work and do it." Things that won't actually work are not done anyway even if the current state of the search calls them "best", but I try to avoid Enrico-Fermi-style "ten percent" underestimates about what might actually have an impact. No holes have actually appeared in the sky, and I'm not presently working with any N larger than 10^80, and there's no reason to worry about small probabilities of affecting that when it's easy to find several different medium-sized candidates. I'd only want to complicate my reasoning any further if I ended up in a more complicated situation than that.

(I also don't think that perpetual motion machines have N>>n.)

Comment author: CarlShulman 06 May 2013 11:34:49PM 3 points [-]

I try to avoid Enrico-Fermi-style "ten percent" underestimates about what might actually have an impact.

But as gwern and other commenters showed, your characterization of accessible chain reactions as an easily drawn implication of then-known physics was wrong.

The best case for bias on Fermi's part in that post is the partially (but not very) independent claim that:

Fermi is also the one who said that nuclear energy was fifty years off in the unlikely event it could be done at all, two years (IIRC) before Fermi himself oversaw the construction of the first nuclear pile.

But you didn't give a citation or quote for that.

And you suggest that

Szilard and Rabi saw the logic in advance of the fact, not just afterward - though not in those exact terms; they just saw the physical logic, and then didn't adjust it downward for 'absurdity' or with more complicated rationalizations

But you only present evidence that they cared about a 10% probability (and Szilard was selected from history in part because of his right-tail estimate).

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 May 2013 07:44:44AM 0 points [-]

I'm still suspicious that Fermi could truly not have done better than "ten percent", and wonder if people are trying a little too hard not to give in to hindsight bias and overfitting, at the cost of failing to learn heuristics that could indeed generalize. Agreed that if +chain reaction implied a new fact of physics in the sense that it tells you about a previously unknown heavy element which emits free neutrons and is splittable, the standard heuristic "does the failure of this prediction tell us a new fact of physics" does not work in the vanilla sense. This doesn't mean that a fair estimate of the probability of at least one not-yet-examined element having the desired properties would have been ten percent. Chain reactions were not just barely possible for a large barely-critical fission plant 50 years later, rather they were soon achieved at a prompt supercritical grade adequate for nuclear explosions by two distinct pathways of U-235 refinement and P-239 breeding, both of which admittedly required effort, but was the putting-in of that effort unpredictable? But this should be continued in the other post rather than here.

Comment author: private_messaging 08 May 2013 08:46:47AM *  5 points [-]

rather they were soon achieved at a prompt supercritical grade adequate for nuclear explosions by two distinct pathways of U-235 refinement and P-239 breeding

They could realistically only breed enough Pu239 by starting with U235 fueled reactor. Everything that you can do in 1945 goes through U235 , which we have only because it has unusually long half life (350x the next stablest fissile isotope, Np-237) . On top of that, they didn't even know that fission released prompt secondary neutrons at all - those could of simply remained in the fission products and convert to protons via beta decay.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 May 2013 09:18:44AM 0 points [-]

I know they got a critical reaction with a big heap of unrefined uranium. This makes no mention of uranium needing to be isotopically refined for plutonium production on the Manhattan Project. As you are generally a great big troll, I am afraid I cannot trust anything you say about isotopic refinement having been used or required without further references, but I will not actually downvote yet in case you're not lying. Got a cite?

Comment author: CarlShulman 08 May 2013 03:58:33PM *  5 points [-]

Federation of American Scientists:

The only proven and practical source for the large quantities of neutrons needed to make plutonium at a reasonable speed is a nuclear reactor in which a controlled but self-sustaining 235 U fission chain reaction takes place.

Discussion of the particle accelerator route which would enable the bootstrapping of a non U-235 route eventually (producing a critical mass of 10+ kg of plutonium using superconductors and huge amounts of energy and accelerator time), but only with much increased difficulty:

Wilson died in 2000 but a paper he wrote on this topic in 1976 has now found its way onto the arXiv and it highlights some thought-provoking ideas.

At the time, Wilson was director of Fermilab where he was building an accelerator called the Energy Doubler/Saver, which employed superconducting magnets to steer a beam of high energy protons in a giant circle. These protons were to have energies of up to 1000 GeV.

The Energy Doubler was special because it was the first time superconductivity had been used on a large scale, something that had significant implications for the amount of juice required to make the thing work. “One consequence of the application of superconductivity to accelerator construction is that the power consumption of accelerators will become much smaller,” said Wilson. And that raised an interesting prospect.

Imagine the protons in this accelerator are sent into a block of uranium. Each proton might then be expected to generate a shower of some 60,000 neutrons in the material and most of these would go on to be absorbed by the nuclei to form 60,000 plutonium atoms. When burned in a nuclear reactor, each plutonium atom produces 0.2 GeV of fission energy. So 60,000 of them would produce 12,000 GeV.

Using this back-of-an-envelope calculation, Wilson worked out that a single 1000 GeV proton could lead to the release of 12,000 GeV of fission energy. Of course, this neglects all the messy fine details in which large amounts of energy can be lost. For example, it takes some 20MW of power to produce an 0.2MW beam in the Energy Doubler.

But even with those kinds of losses, it certainly seems worthwhile to study the process in more detail to see if overall energy production is possible.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 May 2013 06:45:17PM 0 points [-]

The original giant heap of uranium bricks with k=1.0006 (CP-1 the first pile) - was that chain reaction all due to U235? Maybe the spontaneous fissions are mostly U235, but are the further fissions mostly neutrons hitting U235? This doesn't correspond with my mental model of a pile like that - surely the 2-3 neutrons per fission would mostly hit U238 rather than U235. I also know there were graphite bricks in the pile and graphite bricks are for having slow neutrons being captured by U238.

Let's suppose U235 didn't exist any more. We couldn't build a huge heap of pure U238 uranium bricks, and throw in a small number of neutrons from somewhere else (radium?) to get things started?

EDIT: Okay, I just read something else about slow neutrons being less likely to be absorbed by U238, so maybe the whole pile is just the tiny fraction of natural U235 with the U238 accomplishing nothing? This would indeed surprise me, but I guess then the case can be made for all access to chain reactions bottlenecking through U235. Still seems a bit suspicious and I would like to ask some physicist who isn't frantically trying to avoid hindsight bias how things look in retrospect.

EDIT2: Just read a third thing about slow neutrons being more easily captured by U238 again.

Comment author: private_messaging 08 May 2013 01:23:48PM *  4 points [-]

In a natural uranium fuelled reactor, the actual fuel (at startup) is U235, present in the natural uranium at a concentration of about 0.7%. No U235 in nature = no easy plutonium.

Those two "distinct" pathways both rely on properties of 1 highly unusual nucleus, U235, which is both easy to fission, and stable enough to still be around after ~5 billion years. How unusually stable is it? Well, from the date of, say, 40 million years since explosion of the supernova that formed Solar system, it was for all intents and purposes the only one such isotope left. (Every other fissile isotope was gone not because of fizzling or spontaneous fission but because of alpha decay and such)

I explained it in greater detail here .

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 06 May 2013 05:54:47PM 0 points [-]

Depends on your opportunity costs.