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Skeptityke comments on Pascal's Muggle (short version) - Less Wrong
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You live in a matrix universe, and you also know that matrix lords occasionally come down to offer strange requests to individuals. One of these matrix lords asks for you to give him 5 dollars, or else he will press a red button that has a one in a googol chance of killing a googolplex people. The red button's randomness is not determined by quantum effects. Do you hand over the five dollars in that case?
Intuitively? Yes, of course I do. I don't trust that intuition too strongly, but this thought experiment does make me update a lot about the value of a lot of ideas about Pascal's mugging.