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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on LINK: Google research chief: 'Emergent artificial intelligence? Hogwash!' - Less Wrong
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I think I'd put something like 5% on AI in the next 15 years. Your estimate is higher, I imagine.
I don't understand where you're getting that from. It obviously isn't an even distribution over AI at any point in the next 300 years. This implies your probability distribution is much more concentrated than mine, i.e., compared to me you think we have much better data about the absence of AI over the next 15 years specifically, compared to the 15 years after that. Why is that?
You guys have had a discussion like this here on LW before, and you mention your disagreement with Carl Schulman in your foom economics paper. This is a complex subject and I don't expect you all to come to agreement, or even perfect understanding of each other's positions, in a short period of time, but it seems like you know surprisingly little about these other positions. Given its importance to your mission, I'm surprised you haven't set aside a day for the three of you and whoever else you think might be needed to at least come to understand each other's estimates on when foom might happen.
We spent quite a while on this once, but that was a couple of years ago and apparently things got out of date since then (also I think this was pre-Luke). It does seem like we need to all get together again and redo this, though I find that sort of thing very difficult and indeed outright painful when there's not an immediate policy question in play to ground everything.