If your case is that BIP is insufficient to establish the conclusions Bostrom wants to establish, I'm pretty sure it does in fact suffice. If you accept both of these:
then we derive Cr[SIM] ≥ 1- (1-x)/y_x. x is some estimate of what f-sim might be in our world if we are not in a simulation and our current evidence is veridical, and y_x is our estimate of how likely a large f-sim is given the same assumptions; it's likely to be around f_I f_p.
Jonathan Birch recently published an interesting critique of Bostrom's simulation argument. Here's the abstract:
The paper is behind a paywall, but I have uploaded it to my shared Dropbox folder, here.
EDIT: I emailed the author and am glad to see that he's decided to participate in the discussion below.