nigerweiss comments on Who thinks quantum computing will be necessary for AI? - Less Wrong
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Sure? No. Pretty confident? Yeah. The people who think microtubules and exotic quantum-gravitational effects are critical for intelligence/consciousness are a small minority of (usually) non-neuroscientists who are, in my opinion, allowing some very suspect intuitions to dominate their thinking. I don't have any money right now to propose a bet, but if it turns out that the brain can't be simulated on a sufficient supply of classical hardware, I will boil, shred, and eat my entire (rather expensive) hat.
Daniel Dennet's papers on the subject seem to be making a lot of sense to me. The details are still fuzzy, but I find that having read them, I am less confused on the subject, and I can begin to see how a deterministic system might be designed that would naturally begin to have behavior that would cause them to say the sorts of things about consciousness that I do.
If you find someone to bet against you, I'm willing to eat half the hat.
We could split it three ways, provided agreeing in principle despite doubting that an actual complete human brain will ever be simulated counts.