wedrifid comments on Karma as Money - Less Wrong
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Note that one reason to be wrong about how people will respond to a given stimulus is to overestimate how much of a desirable trait that they have. So while "your expectation is at fault" to the extent that correctly predicting response is a goal, the update in such circumstance is still in the direction of less respect for the people you are attempting to predict. That can be disheartening at times.