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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on New Improved Lottery - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 April 2007 11:42PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 April 2007 08:52:09PM 1 point [-]

Can the financial markets give you a better than 1 in 38 chance of turning $30,000 into over $1,000,000 within a year before you lose your initial stake?

If you assume that option prices are well-calibrated, you could just buy $30,000 of any kind of option that would pay off $1,050,000 if it ended up in-the-money. Not sure that's a fair assumption though.

Comment author: pnrjulius 03 April 2012 03:12:27AM 0 points [-]

Someone has to be selling such options, and I'm not aware of anyone who is.