Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Douglas_Knight2 comments on New Improved Lottery - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 April 2007 11:42PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (34)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight2 15 April 2007 02:46:01AM 1 point [-]

Eliezer, did you mean to evoke stock markets with "You could feed it to a display on people's cellphones"?

Surely financial markets are well-calibrated for events that happen once a month. Then an option that such an event will happen tomorrow is should be about right. Some claim that there is systematic bias in options against rare events, that on a long shot you do better than even.