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Douglas_Knight2 comments on New Improved Lottery - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 April 2007 11:42PM

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Comment author: Douglas_Knight2 15 April 2007 02:46:01AM 1 point [-]

Eliezer, did you mean to evoke stock markets with "You could feed it to a display on people's cellphones"?

Surely financial markets are well-calibrated for events that happen once a month. Then an option that such an event will happen tomorrow is should be about right. Some claim that there is systematic bias in options against rare events, that on a long shot you do better than even.