khafra comments on Rationality Quotes July 2013 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Vaniver 02 July 2013 04:21PM

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Comment author: khafra 10 July 2013 11:29:12AM 9 points [-]

Statistically speaking, if you pick up a seashell and don't hold it to your ear, you can probably hear the ocean.

Comment author: nshepperd 10 July 2013 01:36:46PM *  3 points [-]

Umm, is it me being sleepy, or did he get P(I picked up a seashell) and P(I'm near the ocean) mixed up in the equation? P(near the ocean | evidence) shouldn't be inversely proportional to P(near the ocean). [ETA: Randall fixed it now.]

Comment author: wedrifid 10 July 2013 01:55:03PM 2 points [-]

Umm, is it me being sleepy, or did he get P(I picked up a seashell) and P(I'm near the ocean) mixed up in the equation? P(near the ocean | evidence) shouldn't be inversely proportional to P(near the ocean).

Well spotted. Bayes rule is p(A | B) = p(B | A) * p(A) / p(B). This cartoon sees to mixed up p(A) and p(B) just as you note.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 July 2013 12:05:44AM 1 point [-]

The cartoon looks right to me...

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 11 July 2013 12:22:25AM 4 points [-]

It's been fixed. I think it was previously wrong. The comic thread seems to support this conclusion.

Comment author: ciphergoth 11 July 2013 07:12:04AM 2 points [-]

Original version of the cartoon

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