ciphergoth comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Qiaochu_Yuan 08 July 2013 05:16AM

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Comment author: ciphergoth 08 July 2013 09:29:12AM *  5 points [-]

I keep hoping my "toxoplasmosis problem" alternative to the Smoking Lesion will take off!

The toxoplasmosis problem is a scenario that demonstrates a failing of EDT and a success of CDT. Toxoplasma gondii is a single-celled parasite carried by a significant fraction of humanity. It affects mammals in general and is primarily hosted by cats. Infection can have a wide range of negative effects (though most show no symptoms). It has also been observed that infected rats will be less afraid of cats, and even attracted to cat urine. Correlations have been shown between psychiatric disorders and toxoplasmosis, and it has been speculated (but not tested) that the disease may cause people to be more risk taking, and attracted to cats. Neurological mechanisms have been proposed (Flegr 2007).

http://intelligence.org/2013/04/19/altairs-timeless-decision-theory-paper-published/

Comment author: arundelo 08 July 2013 01:08:24PM 3 points [-]

Other alternatives to the Smoking Lesion Problem:

Eliezer has one with chewing gum and throat abcesses (PDF). "I have avoided [the Smoking Lesion] variant because in real life, smoking does cause lung cancer."

(According to that same document this class of problem is known as Solomon's Problem.)

orthonormal proposes the Aspirin Paradox.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 08 July 2013 10:36:11AM 2 points [-]

The toxoplasmosis version has the drawback that in the real world there is presumably also a causal link from adoring cats to getting infected, which has to be disregarded for The Toxoplasmosis Problem, just as the real causal effect of smoking on cancer must be disregarded in The Smoking Lesion.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 08 July 2013 10:15:42AM 1 point [-]

I like the toxoplasmosis problem but I wanted to stick to a more established example for the sake of familiarity.

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