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Manfred comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong
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Hmm, I don't think hat's quite the key point. For example, what about the absentminded driver problem?
My attempt would be "the process that decides where the money is the same as the process as the choice you make - you have just one independent decision to choose them with."
(Cool trick - you get the correct answer to the absent-minded driver problem (mostly) - even post-updates - if you make the probability of being at the different intersections depend in the obvious way on your probability of continuing when maximizing expected utility)
Can't say I follow... As for the absentminded driver, I thought reflective consistency takes care of it (you don't recalculate your probabilities on the fly in absence of any new information).
The absentminded driver learns something when they learn they are at an intersection. The bits of information they get from the enviroment enable them to distinguish between intersection and non-intersection situations, at least :P
I don't believe the driver learns anything new at an intersection. She knows the map and the payout in advance, there is not a single bit of information at an intersection that requires any decision making not already done before the start. The absentmindedness part means that the calculation is repeated at each intersection, but it's the exact same calculation.