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peter_hurford comments on Open thread, July 29-August 4, 2013 - Less Wrong
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In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky and, I think, Luke Meulhauser have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined? I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
Do you have a permalink to any of those instances? It would be helpful to know what they defined medium as.
see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.