...um.
It seems to me that if I believed what I infer you believe, I would be donating to MIRI while frantically trying to figure out some way to have my doomed world actually be saved.
It seems to me that if I believed what I infer you believe, I would be donating to MIRI
Why? You (and everybody else) will almost certainly fail anyway, and you say I shouldn't multiply this low probability by the utility of saving the world.
while frantically trying to figure out some way to have my doomed world actually be saved.
The only way I see is what MIRI is doing.
Edited to add: While this is interesting, what I was really asking in my first post is, if you think the odds of MIRI succeeding are not low, why do you think so?
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)