I see. We just used different thresholds for valuable, you used "high probability of MIRI making the counterfactual difference given survival", while for me just e.g. speeding Norvig/Gates/whoever a couple years along the path until they devote efforts to FAI would be valuable, even if it were unlikely to Make The Difference (tm).
Whoever would turn out to have solved the problem, it's unlikely that their AI safety evaluation process ("Should I do this thing?") would work in a strict vacuum, i.e. whoever will one day have evaluated the topic and made up their mind to Save The World will be highly likely to have stumbled upon MIRI's foundational work. Given that at least some of the steps in solving the problem are likely to be quite serial (sequential) in nature, the expected scenario would be that MIRI's legacy would at least provide some speed-up; a contribution which, again, I'd call valuable, even if it were unlikely to make or break the future.
If the Gates Foundation had someone evaluate the evidence for AI-related x-risk right now, you probably wouldn't expect MIRI research, AI researcher polls, philosophical essays etc. to be wholly disregarded.
I used that threshold because the numbers being thrown around in the thread were along those lines, and are needed for the "medium probability" referred to in the OP. So counterfactual impact of MIRI never having existed on x-risk is the main measure under discussion here. I erred in quoting your sentence in a way that might have made that hard to interpret.
...If the Gates Foundation had someone evaluate the evidence for AI-related x-risk right now, you probably wouldn't expect MIRI research, AI researcher polls, philosophical essays etc. to be wh
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)