I'm skeptical that we'll prove P!=NP or even find a provably secure encryption scheme before making the world's economy dependent on unproven schemes, etc.
Nitpick, but finding a provably secure encryption scheme is harder than proving P!=NP, since if P=NP then no secure encryption scheme can exist.
if P=NP then no [provably] secure encryption scheme can exist.
What? Why? Just because RSA would be broken? Shor's algorithm would also do so, even in a proven P!=NP world. There may be other substitutes for RSA, using different complexity classes. There are other approaches altogether. Not to mention one-time pads.
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)