Really, if P=NP, then encoding your messages would be quite low on the priority list ... however we're not debating the practical impact here, but that "finding a provably secure encryption scheme is harder than proving P!=NP", which was raised as a nitpick, and is clearly not the case.
Happiness or unhappiness of life with one-time pads notwithstanding.
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)