AMF/GiveWell charities to keep GiveWell and the EA movement growing while actors like GiveWell, Paul Christiano, Nick Beckstead and others at FHI, investigate the intervention options and cause prioritization, followed by organization-by-organization analysis of the GiveWell variety, laying the groundwork for massive support for the top far future charities and organizations identified by said processes
Cool, if MIRI keeps going, they might be able to show FAI as top focus with adequate evidence by the time all of this comes together.
Well, in collaboration with FHI. As soon as Bostrom's Superintelligence is released, we'll probably be building on and around that to make whatever cases we think are reasonable to make.
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)