having synthesized most pre-existing work
Most pre-existing work? I would've said "having synthesized ~5% of pre-existing work related to superintelligence strategy that has been done at or near MIRI and FHI."
Good news! Having now read the near-finished draft, my new guess is that Bostrom's book synthesizes more like 20% of pre-existing work related to superintelligence strategy that has been done at or near MIRI and FHI. A lot has been added to the book since April. It's really killing me that the book won't be published until mid 2014.
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)