SaidAchmiz comments on Biases of Intuitive and Logical Thinkers - Less Wrong

27 Post author: pwno 13 August 2013 03:50AM

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Comment author: SaidAchmiz 15 August 2013 01:28:22AM 4 points [-]

How about sports and fast paced games? [...]

The difference between reacting in a third of a second and a fourth of a second could mean life or death.

Success in this situation, assuming it's possible, is dependent on your experience in similar situations and your instinctual reaction. Since you do not have the time to think, your decision is almost guaranteed to be imperfect, but any improvement in it is highly beneficial.

I do not play sports, but I did spend several years doing high-end raiding (mostly as a main tank) in World of Warcraft, which I think fits your criteria. Raid play is fast-paced and demanding, with necessary reaction times measured in fractions of a second.

I would not characterize good play in a WoW raid as based on intuition. Here is, basically, the process for beating a new, challenging raid boss:

  1. Go in, try the boss. The entire raid dies horribly, of course.
  2. Meticulously, exhaustively analyze the combat log. Note down all observations made of boss behavior. Correlate data.
  3. Brainstorm solutions, based on raid leader's and key raid members' comprehensive, minutely detailed knowledge of game mechanics.
  4. Make detailed plan. The plan implicitly includes generally correct play from all raid members; note that for almost all classes in WoW, optimal play means following detailed algorithms for ability usage, often worked out at length by top "theorycrafters", who are often people with advanced degrees in physics and mathematics (no, I am not exaggerating) — plus, of course, extensive experience, to the point where playing correctly is at the level of muscle memory.
  5. Attempt to execute plan. Correct execution demands precise, down-to-the-second performance from all raid members.
  6. If successful: yay! If failure: proceed to step 2. Repeat until victory.

If this is an intuition-based approach, then I don't know what "intuition" means.

You mention lots of fields (computers, math, science, engineering) where your argument is almost tautological: in a case where you have time to reconsider each decision, a slow but reliable and precise method is better than a snap judgment. Yes, I would agree with you, and I would also agree that logical thinking is better than intuitive thinking in many, many situations.

Of course logical thinking is better when you have time to use it. I'm not asking whether it's better. I'm asking whether "gut judgments" are accurate, and how accurate they are.

Basically, I see many people claiming that in "crunch time" scenarios, you have no choice but to apply the gut judgment. Ok. But my question is: if you later go back and apply logical reasoning to the (by now, perhaps, irrelevant) problem, does it turn out that your gut judgment was right? How right? How often? Etc.

Comment author: Lumifer 15 August 2013 02:15:18AM 3 points [-]

I would not characterize good play in a WoW raid as based on intuition.

On a PvE server, on in PvE in general -- yes, raid bosses are basically a puzzle that you figure out and then execute to the best of your ability. But take a PvP server, say you're assembling for the raid and are attacked. This is the fight where you have half a second to realize what someone is trying to do to you and come up with a counter.

I hesitate to say that you have to act on your intuition in a PvP fight, probably a better word is memorized (mostly subconsciously) patterns based on experience -- that's what drives your actions.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 15 August 2013 02:58:46AM 0 points [-]

On a PvP server, if you're assembling for a (serious) raid and are attacked, you sigh, say "goddamnit... jerks", and then res as fast as possible in a way that will get you to the raid ASAP. (And that's back when you couldn't just teleport directly to the instance from wherever.)

"Memorized patterns based on experience" is a good characterization (often they're even memorized consciously). Although, there is a nontrivial element of intuition in competitive (arena) PvP, where your opponent's psychology is an important factor.

Comment author: Lumifer 15 August 2013 02:45:44PM 1 point [-]

On a PvP server, if you're assembling for a (serious) raid and are attacked, you sigh, say "goddamnit... jerks", and then res as fast as possible in a way that will get you to the raid ASAP.

That rather depends on your guild. "Screw the raid, we've got faces to melt!" is not an uncommon response :-)

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 16 August 2013 02:37:59AM 0 points [-]

Dirty casuals :p

Comment author: metastable 15 August 2013 03:59:43PM 2 points [-]

I'm asking whether "gut judgments" are accurate, and how accurate they are.

I have very little experience with WoW, so it's interesting to hear how deliberate and reasoned a high-level raid is. I have a little experience with sports, combat, and combat sports.

It's pretty surprising that our brains handle abstractions as well as they do. It's not at all surprising that they can process and integrate sensory information as fast as they can, because that trait is crucial to survival for most animals.

When Kevin Durant fakes a pass and then shoots from 30 feet away, he's doing something he's done thousands of times before. It's a pattern. But he's adjusting that pattern for many things that weren't present in practice, and no two shots are exactly alike. His brain is calculating a trajectory much faster than any of us could with pencil and paper, and his cerebellum is "answering" hundreds of individual questions about muscle opposition that our roboticists might not be able to coordinate at all. He misses some shots, of course. But insofar as a made shot counts for accuracy or right judgment, he probably has better accuracy in much less than a second than anybody could achieve with reflection.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 16 August 2013 02:40:20AM 0 points [-]

It's a pattern. But he's adjusting that pattern for many things that weren't present in practice, and no two shots are exactly alike.

Yes. This is exactly right, and true in WoW as well.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 15 August 2013 01:32:41AM 0 points [-]

So, I realize this is off-topic, but I'm really curious: wouldn't it be easier to automate steps 1, 5 and 6?

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 15 August 2013 01:56:09AM 0 points [-]

Some rudimentary efforts to do so have, on occasion, been made. While wholesale bots (i.e., no real-time human control at all) are totally incapable of performing at the level required to beat high-end raid bosses, certain simple, repetitive parts of the process can be automated with add-ons and macros.

There are two issues here: desirability and difficulty.

Desirability: if you automated those parts, then there wouldn't be a game. No one wants to just theorycraft for a while and then sit there and watch while things happen automatically. Theorycraft is the metagame. The parts where you actually execute the plan are the gameplay. And the gameplay is fast-paced, exciting, adrenaline-rush-generating, skills-demanding, and cool-looking. The excitement of the gameplay is what WoW raiders live for.

Or at least, most WoW players take this stance. Knowing this, Blizzard has consistently banned any game add-ons that go too far in automating things. There's a fine line, and sometimes it shifts, and sometimes it's blurry, but the intent is clear: thou shalt play the game yourself, not write code that will play the game for you. (As with all commandments, precise interpretation is a longer discussion.)

Difficulty: The reason you can't actually fully automate the steps in question (unless, perhaps, you are the game/boss designer, and have access to all the internal game variables) is largely because:

  1. Positioning (i.e., location and movement of characters in the game world) matters a lot. (The reasons why are several, and probably boring, but take my word for this.)
  2. Timing matters a lot. Which is to say, not only must character ability usage be timed correctly with respect to the behavior of game elements (monsters, environmental events, etc.), but players must also time their actions with respect to, and in response to, what other players are doing.
  3. There are many variables that go into correct play. Combinatorial explosion would make automating this a daunting task. For a human, learning a boss strategy, or a play technique, is faster than devising and implementing an algorithm to execute it. To a human, you can just say "kite that mob over there, then release it when I yell on voice chat", and (if he's a skilled player) he won't need to be told twice. Writing code to do this... is likely possible, but not easy.
Comment author: Lumifer 15 August 2013 02:16:34AM *  0 points [-]

No one wants to just theorycraft for a while and then sit there and watch while things happen automatically.

Not exactly. Yeah, I know this isn't WoW.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 15 August 2013 02:54:33AM 0 points [-]

Yeah, my comments were WoW-specific. Roguelikes are very different.