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Dagon comments on Confidence In Opinions, Intensity In Opinion - Less Wrong
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This could be a good article (and I'd agree: start in discussion) with some more specific examples, and some way to quantify "intensity" in a useful way. I suspect you'll find that if you do so, you end up with something that looks like an expected value calculation from classical decision theory
Also, there's LOTS of things that you can rationally estimate with higher than 90% confidence.