michael_vassar3 comments on Update Yourself Incrementally - Less Wrong

30 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 August 2007 02:56PM

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Comment author: michael_vassar3 14 August 2007 06:04:49PM 3 points [-]

Matthew: As far as I can tell, Psi is not a hypothesis that constrains the probability density of predictions rather than simply saying "anything goes, anything can happen". As such, isn't it just an instance of radical skepticism? The thing is, radical skeptical arguments don't change anticipations or proscribe changes in behavior. Taken seriously, it's not clear that such hypotheses even constitute arguments for their own advocacy. Maybe if I draw attention to the unknowable demons behind the curtain I will be better able to deal with them but maybe that will cause them to eat me. I don’t see how an expected value calculation holds that the former is more likely than the latter, just as I don’t see how a god who punishes atheists is any less likely than one who punishes believers. Related question. What evidence would cause you to relinquish the psi hypothesis?