Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Update Yourself Incrementally - Less Wrong

30 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 August 2007 02:56PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 August 2007 07:30:48PM 12 points [-]

You want me to believe precognition has been scientifically established? Give me one single research protocol which reliably (90% probability) produces results at the p < 0.01 significance level for events 30 minutes in the future.

If the effect is real, however small, there will exist some number of subjects/trials that reliably amplifies the effect to any given level of statistical significance.